Preparing for a new normal

"Hmmmm, I wonder if that cough is allergies or coronavirus?" -- Steve Harvey 

According to one plan to end the coronavirus crisis, there are 6 steps: 

Step #1:  National and state stay-at-home physical distancing policies.

Step #2:  Ramp up testing and production of personal protective equipment.

Step #3:  Instantaneous contact tracing and isolation.

Step #4:  Travel restrictions and protections.

Step #5:  Guidelines for the use of face masks.

Step #6:  Targeted, gradual lifting of restrictions.

Some state and national leaders are still resisting step #1 so we may have a way to go here in the US. We need to remember Wuhan, China was locked down tight for 76 days, much tighter than most US cities and states are currently restricted. Looking at the Wuhan timeline, their lockdown began in January and restrictions are just now beginning to be lifted in April. A friend of mine in Greensboro shared a message she received from a friend of hers in Hangzhou April 6: 

"The coronavirus in China has been basically controlled and most of the people have started to work.  Schools are still on-line and will open in late April.  The shops are open and the state calls on people to wear masks, reduce concentration in shops.  We all take it seriously.”  

People living in China are not totally back to normal yet. They are simply taking steps on a path to normalcy. 

One important milestone to reach and move past is the peak of infections. IHME researchers make frequent updates to prediction models as new data become available. The graph below projecting when NY may reach peak infections is based on April 7 snapshot data: 

Because the virus emerged in different parts of the United States at different times, and because some areas are having better success with mitigation compliance than others, states are expected to reach peak on a rolling basis. For example: 

NPR	Anticipated Peak Date	Daily Deaths		Total Deaths
April 7		#	per 100K
NY	April 9	878	4.5	15,618
NC	April 15	30	0.3	495
CA	April 17	70	0.2	1,783
CT	April 22	192	5.4	5,474

As communities reach peak and begin preparing for recovery, physical distancing measures remain necessary to prevent a second wave. Coronavirus is currently active in every inhabitable continent on the planet in both the northern and southern hemispheres. Looking at data collected from around the globe, there is no indication the virus might simply go away on its own as seasonal temperatures rise. Therefore we would be well advised to adopt South Korea’s line of attack: testing, tracking, tracing, and treating. We need to be diligent in flattening the curve until there is a vaccine and/or until we have established herd immunity.  

Dr. Anthony Fauci predicts students and teachers will return to school in the fall, though he warns next year will be different. He urges Americans to intensify the mitigation strategy of physical distancing rather than risk a surge or second wave by stopping too soon. He thinks those who recover may have immunity through September.  NY Gov Cuomo is also cautious about recovery, believing New Yorkers will face a new kind of normal somewhat different from daily life before the pandemic.

Bill Gates thinks it could be fall 2021 before Americans are truly safe from the virus. He hopes a vaccine will be readily available by then. And he cautions that the government won’t be able to “waive a wand” to restore the economy to what it was before the pandemic began.

Silicon Valley sage John Chambers foresees at least nine months of economic pain. He praised the government’s stimulus package efforts, yet acknowledged the economy will get worse before it gets better. Some venture capitalists predict a prolonged economic rebound April 2021 – April 2022.

The CDC recently loosened guidelines to allow essential employees exposed to the virus to return to work early with some precautions. This move is considered a preliminary step on the path to recovery. How will we know when it’s ok to resume relative normalcy? Some cities and states will be ready sooner than others, and their readiness will depend on specific criteria:

·  Hospitals need to be able to safely treat all patients requiring hospitalization without resorting to crisis standards of care.

·  States need to be able to test at least everyone who has symptoms.

·  States need to be able to conduct monitoring of confirmed cases and contacts.

·  There needs to be a sustained reduction in cases for at least 14 days.

In addition to meeting the above criteria, antibody testing to track herd immunity and the development of a vaccine are important milestones to achieve before a true return to normalcy will be possible. Most of us will continue to be at home for a while longer so as we prepare for the weeks and months ahead, coronavirus etiquette will become increasingly important. Physical distancing is working, but we can’t afford to be complacent or let our guard down.  

BOTTOM LINE: The timeline for return to normalcy is unknown.  

No one knows exactly when we will be free of current restrictions, or how future normal might differ from past normal. Most doctors and scientists agree we need to stay the course to stay healthy, but no one is quite ready to project or predict for how long exactly.  Shout out and hat tip to friend Dwayne in Arizona for his Good Friday post. 


In the spirit of spreading happy, positive, and/or silly vibes: 

·  UConn mascot Jonathan Husky video contemplating return to normalcy. 

·  Daily Show announces winner in Trump best word bracket tournament.

·  Miss Betty Bowers explains why we need to stay home a bit longer. 

Daily pandemic update:  

WHO marked 100 days since China alerted to first COVID-19 cases. Spain reported 605 new coronavirus deaths and 4,566 new cases, continuing a downward trend.  Poland's government spokesman Piotr Muller said the country may see the peak of infections from the coronavirus in the coming days. The Philippines reported 18 more coronavirus deaths and 119 new infections. The death toll in the Southeast Asian country has reached 221, while confirmed cases totaled 4,195. In Singapore, the use of Zoom for online education was suspended after hackers hijacked a lesson and showed obscene images to students.  Aljazeera.com timeline 

10 Apr 2020	Cases		Deaths		Recovered
11:21 GMT*	Yesterday	Today	Yesterday	Today	Yesterday	Today
World	1,529,640	1,617,574	89,418	96,919	337,164	365,743
US	435,160	468,895	14,797	16,697	22,891	25,928
NY	151,079	161,807	6,269	7,067	15,927	16,234
CT	8,781	9,784	335	380	0	0
NC	3,577	3,845	68	83	210	281

*Documenting time of day because real time data updates continuously.
Tracking specific states:  NY is US epicenter, son Reid lives in CT, and I live in NC. 
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/     https://www.coronainusa.com/  

A moment of silence for those we’ve lost to coronavirus, including the first 100 in the US.

In the news:

·  Food banks need donations ASAP!

·  Trump said more than 2 million tests completed in US; no need for more widespread testing. Within hours DHHS announced federal support for community based testing sites would continue.

·  Former Obama health policy advisor cautions vaccine will be key to true return to normalcy.  

·  Obama himself spoke about pandemic preparedness in 2014. 

·  Mild coronavirus symptoms include loss of smell or taste, fatigue and body aches, irritated eyes and runny nose, and tummy trouble. 

·  CDC reported 90% of hospitalized coronavirus patients have underlying conditions. Bill O’Reilly: those dying “were on their last legs anyway.”  

·  Genome study indicates most NY coronavirus cases came from Europe, not Asia.

·  Everything you need to know about animals and pets vulnerability to coronavirus.

·  Synthetic antibodies may lead to coronavirus treatment.

·  Many hotels donate food and/or rooms for emergency personnel; not Trump properties.

·  Savannah, GA mayor broke up fight at Wal-Mart.

·  Police in Louisiana apologize for sounding alarm from Purge horror film to signal curfew.

·  Two children hospitalized after accidentally eating THC infused candy.

Following Kenny Beck’s lead to share a few signs of hope:

·  Virtual party ideas for celebrating birthdays from a distance. 

·  Greensboro Science Center asks public to help name baby penguin chicks. 

·  Moji Coffee in Winston Salem closed, urging customers to purchase coffee online.  

In my personal life…

After blogging for nearly a month, I continue to tweak format and method to compose posts. Dumping all my notes and links into a single Word doc was getting messy and overwhelming so I split content into chunks based on subject matter. Now I have separate docs for different themes. Downloading memes and images to desktop while all docs are on Microsoft One Drive in the cloud. Taking this step because I had been journaling about my mom before the crisis unfolded in March when laptop crashed and the document couldn’t be recovered. Don’t want to risk something like that happening again. 

When my brother Randy called to check in, he shared some good news. A few years ago his doctor told him he was in early stage of kidney disease so he has been participating in a medical research study and following a special diet since then. Recently his doctor told him his diagnostic numbers had improved enough that his file is being moved to inactive for now, meaning he won't need a transplant right away. Hip hip hooray! 

More good news: Greg and I had a Zoom chat with his sister Tonya last night. It was wonderful to see her, along with husband Peter and cats Zeus and Mica. Phone calls with Tonya are great, but the video chat was even better.